By Jihoon Lee
SEOUL, June 1 (Reuters) – South Korea’s exports grew more than expected in May at the strongest annual rate in over four decades, as a global boom in AI investment drove chip sales to a record, swelling optimism on the trade-reliant economy and its world-beating stock rally.
Exports from Asia’s fourth-largest economy, a bellwether for global trade, rose 53.2% from a year earlier to a record high of $87.75 billion, preliminary trade data showed on Monday, exceeding the median 48.4% increase forecast in a Reuters poll.
It was the 12th consecutive month of exports growing on a year-on-year basis and the biggest percentage rise since January 1984, bringing a record monthly trade surplus for the country.
“It is truly an unprecedented pace, raising market expectations again and again and exceeding them again and again,” said Stephen Lee, an economist at Meritz Securities in Seoul.
He is forecasting even stronger momentum in the third quarter and export growth of around 50% for the full year.
“It justifies the KOSPI’s rally and also raises expectations for this year’s economic growth,” Lee said, adding that he now expected a 2026 growth rate above 2.6%.
Last week, the country’s central bank raised its economic growth forecast for this year to 2.6% from 2.0%, after the trade-reliant economy delivered its strongest growth in nearly six years last quarter on booming chip exports.
The country’s benchmark KOSPI stock index, which has emerged as the world’s best performer in an AI-driven rally, rose more than 2% in morning trade on Monday to hit a record high.
The index has risen more than 100% so far this year, led by chipmakers Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix on their surging profits as memory chip prices soar. Last year, the index rose 76%, the biggest percentage gain since 1999.
FACTORY ACTIVITY EXPANDS, EXPORTS JUMP
Meanwhile, a separate survey also showed on Monday that South Korea’s factory activity expanded in May at the strongest pace in more than five years on stock building by manufacturers as they braced for the impact of the Middle East conflict.
According to Monday’s trade data, exports of semiconductors jumped 169.4% in May to a record monthly high of $37.16 billion, as memory chip prices continued to rise on growing investment by U.S. technology firms.
Computer sales also surged 290.7% on AI server demand, while petroleum products climbed 46.6% on high oil prices. Exports of automobiles fell 5.9%, weighed by supply disruptions in the Middle East and the impact of U.S. tariffs.
By destination, shipments to the U.S. and China were up 59.1% and 80.9%, respectively. Those to the Middle East were down 7.7%.
Imports rose 20.8% to $60.80 billion, weaker than the median 21.5% increase expected by economists but still the strongest since August 2022.
The country’s trade balance stood at a surplus of $26.95 billion, wider than $23.75 billion in the previous month and an all-time high.
(Reporting by Jihoon Lee; Editing by Jacqueline Wong and Jamie Freed)
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