A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Gregor Stuart Hunter:
De-escalation hopes for the Iran war are spurring a rally in stocks and bonds, but – drawing attention to today’s date – will the market turn out to have fooled itself again?
Equities are surging after U.S. President Donald Trump said the United States could end its military attacks on Iran within two to three weeks and that Tehran did not have to make a deal as a prerequisite for the conflict winding down. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan took heart and soared 4.3%, snapping a four-day losing streak and putting the benchmark on track for its best one-day return since the post-Liberation Day rebound on April 10.
South Korea’s Kospi is leading gains, surging as much as 7.7%, after Korean exports soared in March, smashing market expectations. A separate PMI showed the country’s factory activity expanded at the strongest pace in more than four years in March, led by semiconductor demand and new product launches.
Other export-oriented markets in the tech supply chain such as Japan and Taiwan are not far behind. Data showed Japanese companies’ sentiment heated up in March.
The rally has so far shrugged off a report in the Wall Street Journal that the UAE may enter the conflict and is lobbying for a UN Security Council Resolution to authorise it to take part in military action to force open the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. Foreign Secretary Marco Rubio also said Washington will have to reexamine its relations with NATO after the war ends.
Trump provides an update on Iran in an address to the nation at 9 p.m. on Wednesday. S&P 500 e-mini futures are up 0.2% so far on Wednesday.
Wall Street stocks soared on Tuesday, as traders bet on the potential off-ramp to the war, though oil markets were more subdued as trading resumed in Asia. Brent crude futures moved 1.2% higher, retracing some of the previous day’s decline.
In early European trades, pan-region futures were up 1.8%, German DAX futures were up 1.8%, and FTSE futures were up 0.9%.
Elsewhere, Greece will rejoin MSCI’s developed market index from May next year, marking a milestone in its recovery 13 years after it was booted out of the benchmark.
Key developments that could influence markets on Wednesday:
Economic events:
France: HCOB Manufacturing PMI for March
Germany: HCOB Manufacturing PMI for March
United Kingdom: S&P Global Manufacturing PMI and BBA Mortgage Rate for March
Euro zone: HCOB Manufacturing Final PMI for March, unemployment rate for February
US: Retail sales for February, ISM manufacturing PMI for March, weekly EIA inventories
Debt auctions:
Germany: 7-year government debt
(Editing by Sam Holmes)
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