BUDAPEST (Reuters) – Hungary’s economic growth this year is likely to come in between 2% and 3%, below the official government forecast of 3.4%, Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s chief of staff said in a podcast on news site 24.hu on Wednesday.
Gergely Gulyas said gross domestic product growth could be below the official forecast due to various risks, including problems in the German economy.
“The budget still includes 3.4% (GDP growth forecast)… but if we suppose that there will be a recession in Germany, then there are more risks, and then we can suppose that (growth) can be somewhat lower than that,” Gulyas said.
Replying to the reporter’s question, he said that economic growth between 2% and 3% this year seemed realistic.
Nationalist Orban is trying to revive the economy ahead of an election in 2026. But his hopes that strong growth will propel his Fidesz party to another election victory are being challenged by a rebound in inflation, sagging household morale and even a plunge in the birth rate that he is keen to boost.
None of the 12 economists surveyed in a February Reuters poll expect the economy to reach the 3.4% growth Orban had assumed in this year’s budget. Erste Bank, last year’s most accurate forecaster of Hungarian economic indicators, sees growth at 2% this year.
(Reporting by Anita Komuves and Gergely Szakacs; Editing by Hugh Lawson)
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