March 9 (Reuters) – In what’s likely to be the calm before the storm, Americans’ inflation expectations were little changed in February amid mixed views on the state of the job market and current and future finances.
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York said in its latest Survey of Consumer Expectations that the expected level of inflation a year from now ebbed to 3% from 3.1% in January, as the projected level of inflation three and five years from now held steady at 3%.
The New York Fed survey, released Monday, was conducted between February 2-28. As such, it does not capture the public’s reaction to surging oil prices that are the result of President Donald Trump’s war on Iran, which has massively disrupted global energy supplies.
Huge increases seen thus far in energy prices are almost certain to drive up already high levels of overall inflation and stand a good chance of pushing the public toward a less benign view on the outlook for price pressures over coming years.
That would present a challenging environment for the Fed, which has been contending with high levels of inflation for some time and a very slow retreat in price pressures back to the 2% target. Officials agree that where price pressures are expected to go exerts a strong influence on where they stand now, so if the oil shock creates expectations of higher price pressures, that could complicate efforts to get inflation back to target.
The New York Fed survey also found relative calm on the hiring front during February. In a landscape where the performance of the job market has grown decidedly lackluster, survey respondents said last month they project a lower future unemployment rate and a lower prospect of losing a job relative to January. But respondents also said last month finding new work would be harder than what they thought at the start of the year.
The survey also found that respondents said credit was harder to get in February compared to January, but would be easier to get in the future. They were more upbeat about current finances in February versus the prior month, while holding steady views about the future state of their finances.
On Friday, the University of Michigan will release its latest report on consumer sentiment and that report may offer the most up to date view on how the public is pricing the energy surge into its outlook for inflation.
Deutsche Bank economists said in a note Monday that U.S. oil production can blunt the impact of global price surges. But they added, “inflation has been too high for too long, and the latest data calls into question how much disinflation can reasonably be expected, especially if there are increases in measures of inflation expectations.”
(Reporting by Michael S. Derby; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)
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